football blog with NFl picks, odds, lines, handicaping advice and news

This blog has moved

2010-04-22T21:26:00.001-07:00

This blog is now located at http://nfl.footballblog.cooperspick.com/.
You will be automatically redirected in 30 seconds, or you may click here.

For feed subscribers, please update your feed subscriptions to
http://nfl.footballblog.cooperspick.com/feeds/posts/default.

The NFL's Race Card

2010-04-21T23:33:00.000-07:00

Since 2006, 16 players have been suspended under commissioner Roger Goodell's personal conduct policy. None will have more significance than Ben Roethlisberger's six-game suspension.

The highest profile suspension under Sheriff Goodell's watch was Michael Vick. Expect Roethlisberger's banishment to resonate longer primarily because of one reason: he's the first big name white player to be punished.

There's zero evidence any of Goodell's suspensions have ever been racially motivated. He's been consistent in his mission for the personal conduct policy: protect the league. Yet it can't be ignored that this suspension feels different because it involves so many firsts -- the first noticeable blemish for the reputable Steelers organization, the first disgraced Super Bowl quarterback, and yes, the first white quarterback to end up in the commish's doghouse.

Media watchdogs were watching closely to see whether Goodell would administer a slap on the wrist or come down hard on Big Ben. In the end, the six-game suspension was just right. Ben is the first player under the policy to be suspended without being formally charged of a crime, a fact that Goodell felt little remorse for in his public letter to Roethlisberger:

"I recognize that the allegations in Georgia were disputed and that they did not result in criminal charges being filed against you," said Goodell. "You are held to a higher standard as an NFL player, and there is nothing about your conduct in Milledgeville that can remotely be described as admirable, responsible, or consistent with either the values of the league or the expectations of our fans."

The message since Goodell arrived has always been clear: players no longer have the luxury of waiting for the legal system to bail them out. It's even clearer now that players see that no demographic is immune to the commish's iron fist. Players who put themselves in compromising situations are in danger of earning themselves a very public trip to the principal's office.

Goodell has succeeded in striking fear into the hearts of players. He's built his brief tenure around his personal conduct policy. Both the players union and owners agree the policy has helped the league immensley. This was evident by Steelers owner Art Rooney's reaction to the news that he was losing his franchise quarterback for nearly half the season: "I agree and support the decision the commissioner made today."

The suspension of one of the NFL's biggest names is a wake up call for players debating whether or not to pop another bottle. They might even start seeing Goodell's reflection staring back at them instead of a scantily clad co-ed sitting across the bar (call it Goodell goggles).

Big Ben will have his chance at redemption. Reports that he's being shopped for draft picks are nothing more than a smokescreen the organization is using to warn their quarterback that they won't tolerate any further incidents. His suspension will not define his legacy if he focuses on football and earns his way back into the good graces of Goodell. He knows another trip to the principal's office will likely be his last.

SuperBowl Talking points for the Saints and Colts

2010-01-29T07:45:00.001-08:00

"A lot of people who are going to bet this game, all they know is Peyton Manning," Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said to the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

I've quoted this before and I'm quoting it again because this exact sentiment is driving an already inflated number even higher. Don't get me wrong, I acknowledge that Manning is quite possibly the greatest quarterback to ever snap on a chinstrap but sometimes we tend to get so enamored with one player that we let him become the sole rationale in our picks. Does this happen to you? If your going out on your own for your picks than god bless you and good luck since you are basing your hopefully basing your pick solely based on research and trends instead of the fact that you just saw Peyton playing ping pong with Justin Timberlake on the tube and everyone's telling you "he's been there before."

Allow me to dispel five misconceptions bettors are using to rationalize backing the Colts at such a high number:

1. Peyton Manning is a better quarterback right now.

It's not entirely fair to give the edge at quarterback to the Colts. Drew Brees (363-514, 4388 yds, 34 tds, 11 ints) and Manning (393-571, 4500 yds, 33 tds, 16 ints) both enjoyed historic seasons. Brees' was better. His 70.6 completion percentage sits alone atop the single season all-time NFL record, besting the likes of Staubach, Montana, Favre, Marino, and Manning.

Yes, Manning took home his fourth MVP award. Yes, his bust is already drying in Canton. Brees hasn't achieved his immortal status and he will never achieve Peyton status (even if he ends up in Canton). If the Superbowl victor was determined by which quarterback has built a more impressive body of work throughout their careers, I would moneyline Manning at +8000 in a heartbeat. But the Superbowl isn't a lifetime achievement award (that's what the HOF is for) it's a team competition and the bottom line is that both QBs are playing at the same elite level right now.

Edge: Neither

2. The Colts would have finished 16-0 if Jim Caldwell didn't decide to yank Manning during the second half of the Jets game in Week 16 while the Saints limped into the playoffs with three straight

Is it possible the Colts could be 18-0 and in the pursuit of perfection had they decided to keep their foot on the gas? Absolutely. I know this guy isn't happy about it.
Even if this was the case, I don't think it would improve their chances to defeat the Saints. It doesn't change the fact that the Saints are a far more balanced team on both sides of the ball and on special teams. Or that the Saints weren't just statistically the most prolific offense in the league this year, they also finished third in the league in TO margin (+11). Compare that to the 15th ranked Colts (+2) and it's clear the Saints have had both a more efficient offense and opportunistic defense thus far.

I'm not trying to shove statistics down anyone's throat, my point is that if you want to count the Colts slightly better regular season mark as a pro for Indy you simply can't ignore the regular season statistics that are compiled in the Saints regular season games. An objective comparison of the two teams based on this argument favors neither team.

Edge: Neither

3. Indy plays in a tougher conference therefore had the harder schedule.

Both teams finished 4-0 out of conference this season. The Saints collected most high profile win with a 38-17 Monday night blowout of the Patriots in the Superdome during week 12. Still, one could argue that the Colts Sunday night 31-10 domination of the Cards in Arizona was equally if not more impressive.

Many NFL gurus defend the AFC superiority theory by citing the AFC's recent success in the Superbowl: 9-3 in the past 12 years. The AFC finished 37-27 against the NFC this year. Combined this is pretty compelling evidence that the AFC has a leg up on the NFC heads up. Against the spread is a different story: The AFC is 5-7 in the Superbowl ATS and an even 32-32 ATS during the regular season.

Don't forget: we're picking against the spread here. I never advocate taking single digit dogs unless I believe the game straight up and I don't think there's any question New Orleans is capable of winning outright and there's no question the other side of the equation is capable of holding true.

Edge: Colts

4. Sean Payton and his staff are newbies to the Superbowl. While the Colts' Jim Caldwell might be a rookie head coach, offensive coordinator Tom Moore and Manning are the ones really running the show. They've been there before and they know how to block out the pageantry and distractions of the Super Bowl and better prepare their team.

Despite the fact that Sean Payton is in his fourth year, both coaches are still unproven quantities. That will change for one of them on Sunday. Let's take a look at both staffs:

New Orleans

Payton came on strong as a rookie head coach in 2006, winning the NFC south and NFL head coach of the year honors. The Saints failed to live up to expectations over the next two years, going a combined 15-17 due to a porous secondary and inconsistency on offense. The biggest adjustment Payton made was making a commitment to running the ball. Despite the lack of a feature back, the Saints still averaged 131.6 rushing yards per game (6th in the league), a welcome complement to their bombs away passing attack which averaged an 272 yard passing per game (4th in the league. Their balanced attack (which led the league in total offense by a significant margin) combined with a developing young defense with big play ability crowned the Saints as Superbowl contenders early this season. The league was already wary of Payton's fearless air attack and regarded him as a QB guru but no one considered the Saints seriously until they finally started playing hard nosed defense and running the ball this year.

Indianapolis

Dungy was always the antithesis of the tough guy head coach personality that NFL GMs covet. Owner Jim Irsay decided to stay the course by hiring the equally stoic and soft-spoken Jim Caldwell. While he has practically accomplished everything a first year head coach can thus far, there remain doubters who believe Caldwell has inherited instead of facilitated his success. Caldwell often paces the sidelines for what feels like hours without speaking a word, often inviting comparisons to the clueless Art Shell during his second stint in Oakland. Many prefer to credit offensive coordinator Tom Moore with the Colts' success. Despite running the most one dimensional office in the league (the Colts were by far the pass happiest team in the league with a run/pass ratio of 32/68), Moore and Peyton Manning managed to thrive throwing the ball on crucial 3rd downs and short situations as well as on the goal line. Manning himself must be mentioned among his coaches. He is the closest to a player-coach you get in the league and he does it without ego or bravado.

The real question for Indy is whether this is the game where their lack of a rushing attack catches up with them. So far the Colts have played defensive teams (Baltimore, NY Jets) with nowhere near the firepower or explosiveness of the Saints. They'll need to establish a running game to control the game and manage the clock to keep Brees off the field.

Edge: Saints

5. The intangibles have to go to the Colts, right?

I'll concede the Colts have been there. But there are other intangibles to consider such as the Colts thin secondary (both starting CB Marlin Jackson and FS Bob Sanders are out for the season), big losses to an already depleted defensive back unit. The health of Dwight Freeney remains a concern and although It's unlikely he'll sit the game out don't expect him to be 100 percent.

While both teams have stepped up in big games this year, New Orleans has been the team that has stepped up and crushed its opponent. A 48 point explosion in Philly during Week 2 followed by a 24-10 victory over the undefeated Jets two weeks later was just the beginning for the Saints. They've shown a willingness to rise to the occasion all season long especially on the national stage.

Manning's Monday night magic at the Dolphins and his unforgettable 4th quarter comeback versus the Patriots are reminders of why he's a first ballot hall of famer. The difference is that Manning is eeking out wins and while he performs best under pressure it's apparent that the Colts are grossly overachieving this season. In order to handle the Saints they're going to need Peyton to Peyton and hope their secondary can hold up against Brees and company.

Edge: Saints

The moment Garrett Hartley's 40-yard field goal sailed effortlessly through the uprights to send New Orleans to their first Superbowl, I knew the Saints would have strong value if the books spotted them a feasible amount of points versus the Colts. Most sharps predicted a threefold point spread for the Colts so many were surprised when they opened at 4. As of Friday, the super bowl betting line at certain sportsbooks online and most of Vegas had jumped to six while our bookmaker as of this writing is still at 5 1/2. Here is a list of reputable online sportsbooks with varying odds from 5 1/2 to 6 and for Cooper's Star Super Bowl Picks and analysis go to: Expert Super Bowl Picks

How to Bet Superbowl Props

2010-01-29T04:14:00.000-08:00

Meet Jay Kornegay, the undisputed "King of Props" and bookmaker at the Las Vegas Hilton. Jay is responsible for determining possibilities as inane as what object the first drunken hooligan will throw onto the field (a can of soda pop was the clubhouse leader at 5-2) to whether Drew Brees will surpass Dan Marino's Superbowl XIX 318 passing yards (Marino opened as -150 favorite).

"We basically just make these up until we get tired," said Kornegay to the Las Vegas Review-Jornal. "The props really make the event. It has become such a popular part of Super Bowl weekend. In essence we love betting props. We've never had a prop with zero bets. Not even close to it."

Kornegay is admitting something books rarely acknowledge: the fact that even the house gets caught up in Superbowl hype. But can we really take advantage of the books without getting juiced to death or are we better off staying away from props and letting the rookies bet the coin toss? Let's take examine some of the current props to see if we can find any value:

Player Props

Peyton Manning total passing yards: 300.5 over: -155
under: +125

The -155 juice on Manning throwing for over 300 yards is remarkable, it's a testament to the respect the books have for him. I was initially tempted to jump on the under but my 'never, any under circumstances, bet against Peyton' rule quickly vetoed me. "A lot of people who are going to bet this game, all they know is Peyton Manning," said Kornegay, further evidence that the books want to inflate Manning's over/unders in anticipation of most of the money coming in on the over for Manning related props. How likely is it that Indy builds an early lead and deviates from their lopsided pass heavy offense? Don't count on it. Tom Moore is notorious for keeping his foot on the gas in these situations, he trusts Manning to continue throwing the ball without turning the ball over. If the Colts are down late, Manning will air it out every down and hit the 300-mark with ease. Bottom line is the under at +125 is an enticing number but there simply too many scenarios where Manning eclipses this mark.

Drew Brees completion percentage: 68.5% over: -125
under: -105

Another surprisingly high number. While Brees is fresh off the most accurate regular season in NFL history (70.6%) his playoff completion of 63.5 percent is encouraging for sports handicappers looking to take the under here. There's only been one other season where he's managed to complete close to the prop (67.5% in 2007). Brees is also coming off his most inaccurate game of the season in the NFC championship game where he completed just 54.8% of his 31 pass o attempts. The 68.5% prop is also being inflated because of the uncertain status of Indy DE Dwight Freeney but I'd be shocked if Freeney doesn't play and wreak havoc in this game. Freeney will command consistent double teams providing the Colts the opportunity to blitz Brees or drop an extra man back in coverage. There's definite value in taking the under here at -105.

Team Props

Alternate Point Spread New Orleans Saints (-3.5) +275

I've never been a fan of alternate point spreads but there's value in taking the Saints with points here at +275. Yes, we are essentially reverse teasing the Saints for eight points here but we get the same advantage of great odds what we get in a tease without relying on multiple outcomes. There's no compelling statistical evidence that suggests either team is superior. Is the mystique of Manning really worth 6 points alone? The experience argument is invalid here because outside of Manning, this a completely different Colts team--particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The only thing stopping me from pulling the trigger is yes, once again, my never bet against Peyton Manning rule. If you don't feel the restraints of this simple but wise philosophy, this is a good spot to test the waters.

Most valuable player (odds will vary)

This is more of a fun prop that fantasy football fanatics enjoy wagering on. Let's start out by eliminating players who have no chance to win the award or don't offer us odds worth wagering on:

Stay away from Peyton Manning (2:3) and Drew Brees (9:4). Are these two the runaway leading candidates to win this award? Absolutely. The problem here is that I'm a strict advocate of never taking a MVP player prop at less than 10-1 odds. You'll be hard pressed to find a quarterback at better than 4:1 in the modern era of the NFL and this game is no exception. I'm fully aware that a quarterback has won this award
56% of the time but don't forget you have to also correctly choose the winning team. This fact alone makes getting double digit odds so much more important, especially in a year where there is no clear cut favorite to win the game.

Don't bet on wide receivers or tight ends. Marques Colston (12:1), Reggie Wayne (10:1), Pierre Garcon (14:1), Austin Collie (20:1), Dallas Clark (12:1), Jeremy Shockey (20:1) these are all great players with respectable odds but the problem is that their respective quarterbacks are too high profile. It's impossible for receivers to accumulate numbers that don't simultaneously pad the quarterback's stats. The Superbowl MVP is first and foremost a hype award and none of these names can hold a candle to that of Manning or Brees. Sure, Santonio Holmes was far from a household name last year when he took home the hardware but do you really believe if Peyton was his quarterback he would've still won the award? Please.

So this still leaves us with several intriguing options.

We have running backs (Joseph Addai 10-1, Donald Brown 25-1, Reggie Bush 10-1, Pierre Thomas 10-1). Let's cross off Brown because he hasn't been healthy and a rookie back has never won.

Bush is the most interesting out of the bunch because he returns punts and is used primarily as a receiving back. He also has the added publicity of having a celebrity girlfriend in the stands, which never hurts. My problem with Bush is that he simply doesn't get enough carries. He had a career low 70 rushing attempts and has just 12 this postseason. In order to leapfrog the QBs a back is going to have score multiple rushing TDs and I just don't see the Saints calling Bush's number on the goal line. If he can take a punt back to the house and add another offensive TD from scrimmage he'll have a healthy shot. Still, in Bush's case 10-1 isn't good enough for me, I might have considered him at 15-1 or better.

Addai has yet to score in the postseason and his longest offensive play from scrimmage was a 17-yard rush versus the Jets in the AFC championship game. Not exactly the resume of a Superbowl MVP, right?

Thomas is the most likely of the running backs to win the award. He would be the first back to do so in over a decade (Terrell Davis in 1998 was the last). He's still a longshot because the Saints platoon him with Bush and his combined 27 postseason carries means Thomas will have to make the most out of every opportunity he has to touch the ball. What he does have going for him is his role as goal line back and and he's fresh off a solid two-touchdown performance in the NFC championship game. The key will be taking TDs away from Brees in a winning effort. It won't be easy but he's worth taking a look at here.

Finally, we have the rest of the pack (defense, kickers, the field). We'll find good value here starting with big defensive names such as Dwight Freeney (30-1) or the lesser known but effective Robert Mathis (40-1). Freeney's banged up but he possesses the talent to single handedly disrupt a high powered offense. It's never easy to picture a defensive player hoisting the trophy but remember no one expected Tampa Bay FS Dexter Jackson to take home the honors in 2003. Eight defensive players have held the honors in the history of the award, the last defensive end to do so was Richard Dent of the Chicago Bears in 1986.

Gary Brackett (50-1), Clint Sessions (50-1) and Jonathan Vilma (40-1)need to rack up more than tackles to have a shot, they would need to force turnovers and score at least one defensive touchdown. Steer clear.

The one defender that offers the most value is Darren Sharper (28-1). He's a known commodity and proven big play safety, if he can goad Manning into making bad decisions he'll have an opportunity to have a significant impact on the outcome of the game.

Stay away from kickers and the field. There's simply too much star power in this game for it to go to an unknown this year.

Now that we gave you some free Super Bowl Prop Picks check out our expert SuperBowl Picks and more from Cooper's Pick.

10 Reasons Why I Hate the Superbowl (and you should too)

2010-01-29T01:09:00.000-08:00

Yep, I said it.

Before you brandish me an Un-American misanthrope and squish me into an iron maiden with the decomposed remains of Benedict Arnold and Azzam the American (he's an Al-Qaeda member), hear me out:

1. Bandwagon fans come out of the woodwork. Co-workers who nauseatingly recap last night's episode of "Jersey Shore" at the water cooler are suddenly donning jerseys from the favored team and proclaiming they've been super fans all along. When you ask if they have any legitimate affiliation with either squad, their response is something along the lines of "No, but I've always been a _______ fan. "

2. People who proudly announce they only watch the Superbowl for the commercials. Don't get me wrong, I get a good chuckle out of the clever Bud Light commercial where the 20-something dude trains his Yorkie to lap up beer from sticky bar floors and regurgitate it back into his beer bong. I just can't stand the guy who shushes everyone so he can hear the commercials than disappears into a bowl of guacamole during the actual game. You'll see how your girlfriend comes into the mix with this one when you get to #8. Which brings me to...

3. You're forced to be around people that don't watch the game. It becomes 'the socialite bowl' for casual watchers who are strictly there to schmooze. I'm utterly incapable of making small talk during significant games or when my Detroit Lions are playing so please don't talk to me about Obama's state of the union address or your how many goals your niece scored in her JV field hockey debut. I would pretend I cared any other day.

4. Halftime shows. The extended halftime only stretches out the already painfully long filibuster that has become the Superbowl. Forgive me for my ignorance but I've never even heard of this year's performers, The Who. Seeing as how we've been graced by the ageless likes of Britney Spears, Justin Timberlake, and Shania Twain in recent years, this selection makes me wonder why the NFL is suddenly targeting the baby boomer demographic again? Regardless of who (no pun intended) performs the acoustics are always spotty and the throngs of backup dancers and high school bands always manage to create an awkwardly gridlocked chaos. Oh, and please leave the wardrobe malfunctions for publicity stunts on MTV. There's no place for that in football.

5. Only corporate fatcats can actually afford to attend the Super Bowl. Since it's a neutral site, the average fan can't afford to follow his team there. Going to the Super Bowl is a status symbol for many Americans so evil corporations snatch up luxury boxes while equally diabolical ticket brokers drive prices up to five figures a pop. Most of the rich coots will devour hors d'oeuvres while discussing croquet and Sarah Palin's personal memoirs of going rogue or something like that instead of watching the actual game (see #3).

6. Celebrity Cameos. I will wager my wedding ring that we will endure a minimum of fifty Kim Kardashian reaction shots during the game. Hopefully we catch her picking her nose or groping Lamar Odom during the halftime show?
7. It's impossible to order a pizza. For the most part, football fans are lazy, unprepared creatures. We're too distracted by the games to order three hours in advance and lack the motivation to go pick up a pie in fear we might miss kickoff. The Superbowl is the only day we can't reach for the phone, order in, then roll back onto the couch for the rest of the day.

8. You're forced to watch the game with your girlfriend. As lovely as she may be, there's nothing worse than having to explain the difference between a safety and touchdown to your significant other during the big game. She claims she wants you to teach her the rules but this seems to be the only day she expresses any interest; the rest of the season she complains that you sit around on your butt and watch too much football. Despite your detailed explanations you realize she only starts cheering after everyone else does. She still has no idea what's going on but that doesn't prevent her from barraging you with a flurry of inane questions. If you blow her off, you're a big jerk and she storms off to flirt with the douche who only watches the commercials (see #2).

9. Everyone has money on the game. This is the one day in the year that the amateurs go to the sports handicappers and there's only one thing worse than having to listen to someone who has $10 on the opposing team gutturally scream after every 1st down when you bet your mortgage on the other team. It's being stuck in a room where everyone screams as if they have wagered their first born child's college tuition on the game. Once they hear someone passionately rooting for the other team they feel an alpha male responsibility to out shout the other person. It quickly turns into a barbaric match of who can embarrass themselves more in public by throwing adolescent tantrums when the their team is penalized 5 yards for a false start. If your one of these people I got some great sports betting tips for you.

10. It's the last game of the year. From here on out we're stuck with hoops and baseball (ugh). There will be no more fantasy stat tracking, redzone channel, or suicide leagues. Monday night football will be replaced by Grey's Anatomy night with the same girlfriend who cheated on you with the guacamole guy. You still have the draft in two months but it's not the same. The only saving grace is that fans of perennial basement dwelling franchises get a clean slate. Maybe, just maybe, this is your year (unless you're a Lions fan).

If you liked 10 Reasons Why I hate the SuperBowl (and you should too) you may also like How to bet Super Bowl Props and Cooper's Super Bowl Picks

Super Bowl Set Saints vs. Colts in Miami

2010-01-24T19:37:00.000-08:00

Super Bowl bound: Manning rallies Colts over Jets

Peyton Manning threw two touchdown passes in the second half and the Indianapolis Colts punched their ticket to Super Bowl XLIV with a 30-17 win over Mark Sanchez and the upstart New York Jets in the AFC Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Colts, who rallied from an 11-point first-half deficit, are now in the Super Bowl for the second time in the past four years as the franchise is looking to win its third Super Bowl. In the 2006 season, the Colts defeated the Bears, 29-17, while the Baltimore Colts took a 16-13 decision over the Dallas Cowboys following the 1970 season.

"The guys have always been very confident and have done a great job of keeping themselves in the game," said Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell, who is the fifth rookie coach to guide his team to a Super Bowl. "We have a group of veterans here who know how to play the game and they got it done today."

Indianapolis will play New Orleans in the Super Bowl in Miami on February 7. The Saints beat Minnesota, 31-28, in overtime in the NFC title game.

The win is also revenge on two counts for Indianapolis as the team avenged a 16-7 loss to the Joe Namath and the underdog Jets in Super Bowl III and got payback for New York spoiling Indianapolis' bid for a perfect season in a Week 16, 29-15 loss in Indianapolis.

Manning finished the game 26-for-39 with 377 yards and three touchdowns while Pierre Garcon, Dallas Clark and Austin Collie all caught scores for the Colts, who defeated the Jets for the first time in the postseason as the team also dropped a 41-0 decision to New York in a 2002 AFC first-round game.

"We knew we had to be patient and play all four quarters against this team," said Manning. "We started to get a beat on them and were able to wear them down with our passing game in the later stages."

Garcon made 11 catches for 151 yards, Collie made seven receptions for 123 yards and Joseph Addai had 16 carries for 80 yards in the win. Matt Stover was 3-for-3 on field goals and also hit all three extra points.

Sanchez had a good game in his third postseason start as he went 17-for-30 with 257 yards, two touchdowns and an interception with Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards each catching a score.

"What a playoff run, it's something we can build on," said Sanchez. "It's a special feeling to get this far. We fell a little short but I'm proud to be a part of this team. And I'm very appreciative that the coaches had faith in me all season long."

However, it wasn't enough for the Cinderella-story Jets as the team saw their bid for their first Super Bowl appearance since the win over Baltimore in the 1968 season fall one-game short.

"When you have Peyton Manning back there pulling the trigger, sometimes no matter what you do he'll still beat you," said New York coach Rex Ryan. "He's just that good that any little mistake you make he'll stick it to you. We had some matchup problems and they took full advantage of it."

Holding a four-point lead, the Jets started the second half with the ball and lined up for a 52-yard field goal attempt, but Jay Feely's attempt went wide right for his second missed kick of the game.

"I felt good about attempting it," said Ryan about the field goal attempt. "I know the snap was a little behind the holder and it threw the timing off a little bit. But you're kicking indoors and we had to try it."

Manning took advantage of the short field as he needed just eight plays to get the ball into the end zone. Garcon's catch at the right corner of the end zone from four yards out gave the Colts a 20-17 lead with 8:03 left in the third.

"We've been down before so we weren't panicking," said Garcon. "We knew we just needed one touchdown and that the defense would stop them so we never panicked."

The Jets had to punt on their next two possessions and the second one saw the Colts start a drive with the ball at their own 20.

On the first play Manning connected with Reggie Wayne for 13 yards. Four plays later, a 12-yard catch by Clark turned into a 27-yard play after a face mask call on James Ihedigbo. After a four-yard run by Addai, Manning found Clark over the middle and he took it into the end zone for a 15-yard score and a 27-17 lead with 8:52 to play.

New York was held to a three-and-out on the following touch and Manning took the Colts on a 12-play drive that covered 71 yards and ate up 5:33 of the clock. It was capped on a 21-yard field goal from Stover with 2:29 to play to seal the win.

Sanchez was picked off by Kelvin Hayden and the Colts ran a minute off the clock before giving the ball back, but Sanchez was barely able to move the Jets past midfield as the game ended.

The only scoring opportunity of the first quarter saw Feely hit a 44-yard field goal just to the right with 6:40 to play in the opening stanza.

However, the teams exploded for 30 points in the second quarter.

On the first play of the quarter, Stover hit a 25-yard field goal to give the Colts a 3-0 lead.

The Jets wasted no time, though, as on the first play of the ensuing touch, Sanchez pump-faked then heaved the ball down the left sideline where Edwards caught it in-stride and raced into the end zone from 80 yards out for a 7-3 lead.

Indianapolis marched down the field and had a 1st-and-goal at the four-yard line after a 22-yard catch by Collie. However, the team again came up with just three points on a Stover 19-yard field goal with 8:44 left in the half after Manning was stuffed on a QB sneak on third down at the one.

New York went to its basket of tricks on its next possession as a running back option saw Brad Smith haul the ball down-field to Jerricho Cotchery for 45 yards. Three plays later, Keller made a leaping catch just over the goal line for a nine-yard score and a 14-6 lead with 4:53 to play in the half.

On the third play of the Colts' next touch, Calvin Pace hit Addai in the backfield as the running back got the ball, causing a fumble which Jim Leonhard recovered at the Colts' 29.

The Indianapolis defense held firm and limited the Jets to a 48-yard field goal from Feely for a 17-6 lead with 2:11 left in the first half.

That was plenty of time for Manning and Collie as the three got together on three straight completions of 18, 46 and 16 yards with the last one in the back of the end zone to make it a 17-13 game heading into the break.

Game Notes

The Jets' first touchdown was their longest play of the season...Stover, who turns 42 on Wednesday, will be the oldest player to ever appear in a Super Bowl...The win puts the Colts at 19-18 all-time in the playoffs while the Jets fell to 10-12...Due to the Pro Bowl being held the week before the Super Bowl instead of the week after the Super Bowl, Clark, Manning, Wayne, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Jeff Saturday will all be excused from participating...Wayne finished the game with three catches for 55 yards and needs 87 yards to move into third place on the all-time postseason receiving yards list...Clark has 761 receiving yards in the postseason and needs just 74 to move past Keith Jackson for No. 1 all-time amongst tight ends...The Colts totaled 461 yards of offense while the Jets had 388...It was the first time this season the Jets gave up three passing touchdowns in a game...Manning became the first player in league history to have seven 300-yard postseason games, which broke a tie with Kurt Warner and Joe Montana.

Superbowl Picks and Live Superbowl Odds Coming Soon.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts

2010-01-15T10:41:00.001-08:00

Baltimore at Indianapolis
Saturday, 8:15 pm Eastern – CBS

The Indianapolis Colts may be the top seed and the favorite to get to the Super Bowl Odds but quarterback Peyton Manning and the rest of the starters haven’t played a full game in almost a month. The Colts rested their starters down the stretch and people really won’t say too much as long as the Colts win on Saturday. The problem for Indianapolis is that they are 0-3 in the playoffs after having a bye week and in this case they have really had three weeks off. "Every year, we think we've got to win it and we feel as a group that we probably should have won more Super Bowls in this decade," defensive end Dwight Freeney said. "There's probably more pressure with that than what's being said about 16-0."

Indianapolis is a 6 point favorite at SBG Global with a total of 44.

Baltimore definitely doesn’t have the rust issue to deal with as they have played meaningful games for the past few weeks. They had to win three of their last four games just to make the playoffs and then routed New England 33-14 last week in the Wild Card round. The Ravens used that route last year to reach the AFC Championship game and they hope to do so again on Saturday. "Our younger guys can draw on the experience of the guys who have been there before, but it's a different year and a different team and this is a new week," coach John Harbaugh said.

Indianapolis has done very well against Baltimore lately, winning the last seven games. It was tough earlier this season though as the Ravens had every chance to win before losing 17-15. Turnovers have been a huge problem for Baltimore in this series against the Colts as they have turned it over 25 times in the seven-game losing streak. Turnovers are the big key for the Ravens in terms of wins and losses. They have a +9 turnover differential in their last five NFL betting games.

Baltimore has won six road playoff games since 1996, the most of any NFL team. The Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the AFC. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings against the Colts.

The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the AFC.

The Under is 4-1-1 in the Ravens last 6 road games. The Over is 4-0 in the Colts last 4 games overall. The Under is 6-2 in the Colts last 8 playoff games. The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the two teams.

Learn to make Dog Food at home. This site is listed under NFL Directory

Why you should leave Tiger Woods alone

2009-12-19T19:52:00.000-08:00

I was checking out at my local supermarket when I was swarmed by a massive wave of juicy tabloids covering Tigergate. From "EXCLUSIVE! SHOCKING NEW TIGER SEX TEXTS!" to a detailed breakdown of which bathroom drapes Elin would receive based on their pre-nup, I couldn't help but wonder what if this was my dirty laundry being aired for all of America to judge?

I get that Octomom, Bennifer, Brangelina, and the Gosselins sell. I understand that celebrity infidelity is a vicarious escape for us. I get it. But sometimes, just sometimes, we need to draw a line and ask ourselves "maybe this is none of my damn business?"

The world of American pop culture paparrazi and professional golf are an odd and grotesque couple. Even the diehard sports fan's escape, ESPN, has lowered itself to TMZ worthy coverage of Tigergate. I counted four times within one hour in which they played a 911 recording of a frantic Elin Woods pleading with dispatchers to help her mother who was suffering from severe stomach pains. Not only was this tape completely irrelevant, it captured the voice of a Elin Woods in a vulnerable and painstakingly personal moment. Where's the entertainment value in that?

No one wants the nation to hear a 911 tape of our spouse calling dispatchers describing how grandpa took one too many viagras. These embarrassing incidents are going to happen in life to everyone and when they do, we expect the peanut gallery to have the decency to let us deal with it privately. Why should Tiger Woods be an exception here?

Sometimes in marriages, spouses cheat on each other. It's despicable behavior, but it happens. I've read that some fans believe they have the right to hear about Woods' affair because their kids look up to him as a role model. This argument is rubbish because if the infidelity was happening in your own family, wouldn't you do everything to protect your children from hearing about it on the playground? You would want them to hear a filtered version that protected both their purity (earmuffs!) and your personal right to tell them what happened on your own terms. Anybody, let alone a stranger, who tried to cross that line would just begging for a five-iron in the groin, right?

Our nation's obsession with voyeurism and celebrity has created a false sense of entitlement that nothing in the life of the rich and famous is off-limits.
I've been guilty of this myself, poking fun at Woods' choice in alleged mistresses with my buddies and indulging myself in ridiculous conspiracy videos. But as I watch my sacred world of sports disintegrate into a rerun of "Gossip Girl" I've come to realize this exact behavior is only adding fuel to the raging tabloid fire. The media ultimately only reports news that we show interest in and our fascination with Tigergate is the real reason it's everywhere.

So do yourself a favor and leave Tiger alone. Don't make us bust out the video of the time you overdosed on eggnog at holiday work party and regurgitated all over the receptionist. I know 300 million Americans that would love to see it.

The Wild, Wildcard Contenders

2009-12-19T17:10:00.001-08:00

By week fifteen, we've separated early season pretenders (Giants, Broncos) from the contenders (Vikings, Colts, Saints). With the exception of the AFC and NFC East, six of the league's eight divisions are virtually locked up. There's still plenty left to play for in the final three weeks of the NFL regular season with multiple second tier teams scrambling to snag one of the coveted wildcard spots.

Recent history suggests wildcard teams are legit Superbowl contenders, we've had four (97 Broncos, 00 Ravens, 05 Steelers, 07 Giants) hoist the trophy in the last twelve years. Let's take a look at this year's likely wildcard teams and weigh their chances to be the latest unlikely wildcard champion.

AFC
Baltimore Ravens (7-6, 2-4 road)
Red flag: The road record is an obvious deterrent because the path to Superbowl 44 is obviously not going to go through Baltimore. After an impressive early road victory at San Diego, the Ravens lone road win came in week ten at the lowly Browns. Quarterback Joe Flacco has regressed after a promising start and the defense is no longer the disruptive force it once was.

There's hope because: Still, the Ravens had the misfortune of playing at Indy, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, AND San Diego all in the same season and lost every game by less than a touchdown, often in heartbreaking fashion. A two-point loss at Indy and a miracle fourth quarter comeback by Minnesota proved the Ravens are capable of winning on the road against the top contenders in both conferences. Don't forget the league's leader in yards from scrimmage, Ray Rice. Rice is a force the Ravens can ride throughout the playoffs it Flacco can return to his mistake-free self from the beginning of the season.

Bottom line: The defense may not be what it once was but it's still among the top five in the NFL. If Ray Lewis and company can force turnovers and win the field position battle this is still a dangerous team.

Denver Broncos (8-5, 4-3 road)
Red Flag: OK, so I already tabbed them as "pretenders" earlier. Here's why: in the second half of the season, Josh McDaniels' squad has been crushed at Indy, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Don't forget the 34-3 home shellacking by the San Diego Chargers either. With the exception of Pittsburgh, these are the exact same teams the Broncos will have to face to make it to the Superbowl. While they've shown signs of snapping out of their second half funk, it's quite the stretch to believe they can put together a miraculous string of road victories over the powerhouses of the AFC.

There's hope because: The 00 Ravens, 05 Steelers, 07 Giants were all built around their suffocating defenses, right? While the Broncos D has fallen off it's league leading first half pace they can still overwhelm teams with both young (DE Elvis Dumerveil) and veteran (DBs Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins) defensive talent. They'll need too ride their talented tandem backfield (RBs Knowshown Moreno and Correll Buckhalter) and hope that Orton can move the chains on 3rd down to Brandon Marshall.

Bottom line: This was supposed to be, hands down, the worst team in the NFL this season. They've overachieved magnificently but beyond one wildcard weekend win, their end will run.

NFC
Green Bay Packers: 9-4 (4-2 Road)
Red Flag: Every NFL historian knows that Lambeau offers the most unique home field advantage in the league. While the Packers will likely host wild card weekend, the road from there is treacherous. Cheeseheads will likely have to follow their team through (in no particular order) the Metrodome in Minneapolis and the Superdome in New Orleans, not exactly the ideal climate for the Packers to demoralize their opponents with their cold weather immunity. Division rival Minnesota's young wideouts exposed the Pack's defensive backs in both lopsided meetings this season,

There's hope because: The Packers are peaking at the perfect time, winners of five straight including victories over the Bengals, Cowboys, and Ravens. After a porous start, the offensive line has finally begun to gel and protect their unquestioned offensive MVP, QB Aaron Rodgers. CB Charles Woodson is a frontrunner for defensive player of the year and they're going to need him to back it up against the likes of Favre and Brees in the postseason.

Bottom line: This is a team that has matured and come together nicely. The problem remains that everything they do, the Saints and Vikings do better. They've looked vastly inferior in both meetings versus the Vikes this year so they better hope they can avoid a third meeting.

Dallas Cowboys: 8-5 (3-3 Road)
Red Flag: I don't buy the December Dallas curse theory and I don't think the Cowboys do either. This is a difficult team to figure out because they are stacked with talent on both sides of the ball. The problem is they never seem to show up on the same day. The pass defense (21st in the league) needs to improve and the neck injury of DE Demarcus Ware could prove to be catastrophic. This team needs to work on its consistency and that falls squarely on the shoulders of head coach Wade Phillips. If the boys in blue go one and out in the postseason, expect Jerry Jones to send Phillips fishing this offseason.

There's hope because: As I write this, the Cowboys are dismantling the undefeated Saints in the Superdome. No one should be surprised. The Cowboys have championship talent at every skill position and this is the kind of win that can work as the perfect springboard to boost their confidence going into the playoffs. The postseason is all about momentum, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles falter and the Cowboys take the NFC East, furthering their chances as a potential darkhorse.

Bottom line: Tony Romo will have yet another opportunity to silence his critics. It'll take a balanced team effort to trade punches with the heavyweights in the NFC and they'll have to do it on the road. Not a likely scenario, but I wouldn't be shocked if they manage to take out New Orleans again.

In Pursuit of Perfection

2009-12-19T15:35:00.000-08:00

In the game of handicapping, perfection is dangerous because it simply doesn't exist.

Perfection only exists in the mind of a casual bettor who hits a miracle parlay during his buddy's bachelor party romp in Vegas. A fleeting moment of perfection creates a lifetime of unrealistic expectations. Before he knows it, Joe Bachelor is slumped over at an off-strip casino buffet filling out his final desperate "get even" parlay card.

As we approach the final three weeks of the NFL regular season, two teams, the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints, still remain in pursuit of perfection. If you don't want to join Joe Bachelor in the cheap seafood line, Be careful not to ride them to the bitter end without doing your homework first.

Let's take a look at their body of work so far:

Indianapolis Colts (14-0, 9-4-1 ATS)
Games Remaining: home vs NY Jets (7-6 ATS, 4-3 ROAD ATS), away vs Buffalo Bills (7-6 ATS, 2-5 HOME ATS)

Both are favorable matchups. I expect the Jets to open up as 5-5.5 pt dogs and wouldn't be surprised if the public jumps on the Jets and moves the line solely because of the "they need the win more" theory. This is a commonly subscribed theory among sports bettors, that belief that the team desperate to save their season will circle the wagons and show up with the motivation to slay a significantly better team. If you see this mid-week movement, don't be afraid to jump on the Colts at the 3.5-4 pt range.

Here's a potential negative: Manning's Colts have flirted with perfection before and disappointed Indy Backers by sitting their starters in seemingly meaningless losses. This shouldn't be too alarming because this is an Indy team that still has a lot to prove. Despite the fact that he's an heir to Tony Dungy's conservative philosophies, rookie coach Jim Caldwell showed no sign of taking his pedal off the gas in a teeter toter 35-31 victory Week 15 win in Jacksonville. Caldwell has the opportunity to go undefeated in his first season, and if the Colts go to Buffalo in week 17 still unblemished, expect Caldwell to play to the whistle in order to achieve perfection.

New Orleans Saints (13-0, 8-5 ATS)
Games remaining: home vs Dallas (6-7 ATS, 2-4 ROAD ATS), home vs Tampa Bay (4-9 ATS, 3-3 ROAD ATS), away vs Carolina (6-7 ATS, 2-4 HOME ATS)

Unlike the Colts, the Saints still have something to play for: home field advantage throughout the playoffs. While it's unlikely they'll relinquish the top seed in the NFC to the Vikings, it's one of many incentives New Orleans has to keep winning.

The problem is the Saints haven't been covering lately (0-2 ATS last two weeks, 2-5 in the last seven). They face inflated spreads every week because of their prolific scoring offense (an NFL best 35.8ppg), but the fact of the matter is that they've been playing down to the level of their competition in recent weeks (close comeback win at Atlanta, miracle comeback at Washington).

This isn't an indictment on the Saints chances to win the Superbowl, their gritty resolve in the face of adversity is exactly what head coach Sean Payton wants to see out of his team heading into the playoffs. But too blindly tail the Saints against the spread is a risky play, especially considering their remaining schedule against a wounded (but dangerous) Cowboys squad and the road finale against a Carolina team that gave New Orleans their first true test during their week nine matchup.

The surviving members of the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins reconvene to pop a bottle of champagne after the last remaining undefeated NFL teams falls every season. This year the bubbly might have to wait: it's certainly plausible that both New Orleans and Indianapolis may pull it off. Just remember, for us bettors there are never any bottles of Dom Peringon waiting for us. Tread carefully when following these hot teams and do your homework on each matchup. Our battle is against the spread and our war is versus the oddsmakers, leave the assault on history to the warriors on the gridiron.

2009 Sports Highlights

2009-12-07T20:47:00.000-08:00

2009 Sports Highlights

Years ago, when I worked in sales, I had a comic taped to my refrigerator. It stayed there for years. I can't recall the drawing, but the quote was the memorable part. It read, "I've known anger, rejection, and pain. I've been in retail." At the time, it rang true. Working on strictly commission, one day I was flying high and the next was a complete train-wreck. I must have hit the corner bar after work more often during those years than any other.

Now that I'm a couple of decades older, I realize that being in sales really isn't any different than being a sports fanatic. Anger, rejection, and pain aren't the half of it. Try anger, rejection, pain, bewilderment, betrayal, and outright depression. On the other end of the pendulum, I've been elated, enthused, hopeful, and at times--complete euphoria. No wonder we always want our spouses to be even tempered and mentally stable...because we certainly are not.

This year I can honestly say that although the championships went according to historic protocol with expected and unsurprising wins from the Lakers, Steelers and Yankees, other issues did not fail to provide excitement and astonishment.

Let's have a look at 2009's interesting highlights.

Sex, Drugs, and ...well, maybe not rock and roll....but there certainly was an ample amount of sex and drugs.

Michael Phelps memorable marijuana pipe scandal. Amazingly, he lost major endorsements over taking a few hits, although Michael Vick, an ex-convict who was proven responsible for extreme animal abuse seems to be just the guy to represent Nike. Oh wait, that's right, Nike did supply a written statement promising us that Vick doesn't have an actual "endorsement," they just supply him with product. I get it now. That's very different.

Endorsement (en dorse ment) 1. The public act of supporting or representing a product.

On February 9, 2009 the A-Rod, Alex Rodriguez admitted to using steroids and other enhancement drugs during the 2001-2003 MLB seasons. Lucky for him the no-steroid policy didn't come into play until the 2004 season, so Rodriguez is exempt from any type of punishment from the league.

And last, but certainly not least, we have the memorable autobiography in which Andre Agassi admitted to crystal meth use during his tennis career.

On the sex scandal scene, we've got Tiger Woods allegations over not one, but several "transgressions" against his blonde bombshell of a wife. Now of course, I personally am not accusing anyone of anything. I couldn't afford the lawsuit. But true or unfounded, soccer superstar David Beckham and ESPN analyst Steve Phillips also found themselves in hot water over the subject of infidelity this year.

Who Got the Axe in 2009?

Well, some things we just saw coming from a mile away and the axe that landed on Notre Dame coach, Charlie Weis' career was one of them. Weis finished up his career at his alma mater with a 35-27 record at a university that had much higher expectations out of their program. Sorry Charlie.

Bobby Bowden, a different story altogether. Some are saying he retired, although the press release that announced Bowden's fate clearly included news of the "firing," by FSU president, TK Wetherell. Directly after he got the axe, two 21 year old spokesmen (quarterback, Chris Ponder and linebacker Dekoda Watson) were thrown to the media wolves to explain. How's that for courage? Nice job, Wetherell.

On a much more somber note, legendary Philadelphia Phillies broadcaster, Harry Kalas certainly didn't get the axe, but he did receive the sacred call from on high in 2009. On a cool April morning, Kalas, 73, took the elevator to the Phillie's broadcast booth, just as he had done for decades. The Phillies played and beat the Nationals that day, but it hardly mattered...the voice of Philadelphia baseball had moved on to a better place. He will be missed.

YouTube Videos

Yep, we are in the age of technology and as a result, the best sports moments of 2009 were captured on video. Here they are:

Actual Sports

You may be wondering if I'm going to include any actual sports news or sports predictions in this rundown of memorable moments. The answer is yes. The few, the proud...the memorable sports moments of 2009.

I'm a die-hard Colts fan. I realize full well that everyone is not. But one cannot deny that although it was not a championship game, nor was it a game that really mattered one way or another, the Colts vs. Patriots game of November 16, 2009 was one of the most surprising victories of the year. The most satisfying part, as far as I am concerned, is the fact that against my better judgment, I continued to watch it to the end. Okay, okay...I may be bragging here, but for an actual Colts fan, the temptation to turn off the television and hit the pillow with a wave of disappointment was huge. But there is something about Peyton that can cause you to believe in the unexpected. When he came through, it was epic....it was exhilarating and extremely satisfying. I hit the pillow that night with the mantra, "yes!" repeating from my lips

If you're a NASCAR and a Jimmie Johnson fan then this was another prideful year for you. History was made when the most dominant driver of the decade won a record 4th consecutive championship at the Homestead speedway this year. The kicker...he's young enough and good enough to pass up his predecessors (Dale Earnhardt, Richard Petty, and Jeff Gordon). It's a nail-biter, isn't it?

So this is the recap of 2009. You may have something to add, and if you do...please comment my blog and we will even give you sports picks style credit for the addition. For me though... this is enough anger, rejection, pain and excitement...until next year.

Michael Vick Returns to Atlanta

2009-12-06T11:50:00.000-08:00

Todays match-up between the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles pits the former face of the Falcons Michael Vick off as he faces them as a different bird; an eagle.

Vick came out with mixed reactions as parts of the crowd booed and others cheered as was much expected since he has received similar fan-fare in Philadelphia this year. His first play he ran for 4 yards and than left the field....Than in the third quarter Vick rushes for his first touchdown in years.
What are your thoughts on Vicks return to the dirty south?

How to Lose Your Bankroll in Seven Days

2009-12-05T20:31:00.001-08:00

The following is some sports betting advice on do's and don'ts:

Parlaying is a lot like communism. It’s a great concept that works in a perfect world. There’s only one problem: the world ain’t perfect. Sports bettors who swim in the parlay tank are flawed creatures. Their demise is inevitable because they swing for the fences instead of working small edges and carefully managing their bankrolls. Sometimes you have to learn the hard way. Just ask my bank account.

The fun is definitely over.

Rewind to week three of the NFL season. After a profitable college football Saturday, I made the ingenious decision to let it ride on a juicy three-team NFL parlay. With two already in the bag, I needed the Steelers to cover a measly three points versus the Bengals (I will henceforward refer to them as the Bungles). Ben Roethlisberger was dissecting the Bungles secondary at will; capping off a seven minute drive with a one-yard superman touchdown dive. Pittsburgh cruised into the fourth quarter holding an eleven point advantage. All was well in parlayland.

Then it happened. Roethilsberger threw a pick-six. Cedric “I’m on a boat” Benson rumbled 23 yards to cut the lead to five. After another Pitt three and out, Carson Palmer woke up from his Steeler induced coma and marched the Bungles down to the Pittsburgh twenty-yard line. After a fourth and two completion to Laveranues Coles to the fifteen I got a sinking feeling of defeat in my stomach. I knew it was over.

There’s a funny thing about parlays. No matter how bleak the outlook, they always throw you a bone on your last leg. Palmer spiked the ball on first down instead of calling a timeout. A rabid James Harrison forced Palmer to throw two quick incompletions to Ocho Cinco and Chris Henry. Fourth and ten with thirty-six ticks remaining. The Bungles called their last timeout and I was pacing hopelessly around my living room. The momentum for Cinci was a runaway freight train and I was powerless to stop it. My heart sank after third-string back Brian Leonard caught a short pass and rumbled through three Pittsburgh defenders for a first down. The next play Palmer fired a game winning four-yard touchdown strike to Andre Caldwell. The Bungles were back.

Yep, I was Bungalised

What followed violated every handicapping rule in the book. I took the only game left on the board, the Sunday night Colts-Cardinals game and parlayed it big. Whiff. Monday night I parlayed the Cowboys-Panthers game for half my bankroll. Whiff. I took the rest and placed three monster parlays for week four. At this point there was no research, no leans, there was only action. It was pure tilt, chasing losses with no regard for my remaining bankroll.

The King of Tilt. I feel you, Mikey. I really do.

After another 0-3 plate appearance I was done. Seven days of tilt erased six months of responsible systemized wagering. Just like that it was over.

“Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts, absolutely.” Lord Acton didn’t have English Premier League parlays in mind when he coined his quote, but his words cannot ring truer. Parlays corrupt, absolute parlays corrupt, absolutely. They corrupted my discipline, my objective mind, and ultimately my bankroll.

Before you dive headfirst into the parlay tank with the oddsmaker and bookie sharks remember you have a much larger edge betting straight over the long run. I’ve heard the argument parlays eliminate the ten percent juice the house takes on straight wagers. But if you can’t beat the juice straight up you’ll never turn a profit parlaying. If you don’t believe me, they are always hiring at Wendy’s. I’m hoping to get promoted to shift manager by the end of the month.

Burying Peyton's Hatchet

2009-11-19T16:18:00.000-08:00

I did what many redblooded Americans did during the fourth quarter of the Colts-Patriots game. It was 31-17 Pats with twelve minutes left. Brady had the ball back and the offense marching again.

I turned the TV off.

I pride myself in being a knowledgable sports fan. I know when a game is over.
I woke up the next morning and skimmed a headline proclaiming last night's game as "one for the ages." I didn't need to click the link. I already knew what happened.

Peyton Manning happened.

I felt instant shame, a shame only diehard sports junkies can feel when they know they have stooped to the level of the casual watercooler fan. It's inexcusable to ignore one simple rule during any game involving number 18: never quit.

The craziest thing about Manning's latest masterpiece was that I was happy for him. Every fan has a nemesis player they maliciously root against their entire careers. For 12 years, Manning was mine.

Rewind to 1997. My girlfriend made the mistake of saying "Peyton Manning is kinda cute." I'll never forget those words. Our relationship was already on the fritz, but after hearing the words "Manning" and "cute" in the same sentence from her mouth I knew it could never work out. I had no choice but to end it at halftime.

My long standing feud with the Manning clan dates back to '97. Peyton, the heavy preseason Heisman favorite, smugly shook his head in disappointment after all-universe Michigan DB Charles Woodson took home the trophy. He waited five minutes before he could even offer a congratulatory handshake. Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer exacted his revenge by notorious placing the undefeated Wolverines 22nd in the final coaches poll.

Fulmer's bitter slight cost my Wolverines first outright national championship in fifty years. Five months later, Manning was selected first overall, three spots before Woodson in the 1998 NFL draft. It was offical. I was the anti-Manning.

I cheered as Manning set the NFL rookie interception record (nevermind he set the TD record too). I reveled as ex-Wolverine Ty Law picked off Manning three times to send the Superbowl favorites packing in 2003. I felt an amazing schadenfreude when the Colts stumbled at the hands of the Patriots again in 2004.

Then something funny happened. Something that rarely happens in the undefined relationship between the obsessive fans and their wealthy nemesises who have no idea their tormenters even exist.

I started to like Peyton.

He refused to point fingers in the face of harsh criticism that he couldn't win big games. He was a perennial pro-bowler and consumate professional on and off the field. While ex-Wolverine Tom Brady was gracing the cover of GQ and knocking up Hollywood actresses, Manning stuck to Sports Illustrated and self-deprecating Sportscenter commercials.

I began to realize that Manning loved football. He was a fan, a historian, and a PHD student of the game. He also inarguably happened to be one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.

There was the 21-point fourth quarter comeback over the Bucs with four minutes remaining. Four minutes! There was the 21-3 first half deficit he erased to finally topple Belicheck's Patriots in 2006 AFC championship game. Don't forget his 2009 monday night magic when Manning surgically dissected the Dolphins seconday despite the biggest time of possession disparity for a winning team in the history of the NFL. The Colts offense held the ball for less than fifteen minutes. Manning brought his team back from behind four times, including a late fourth quarter drive to seal the 27-23 victory.

Which brings us back to last Monday. I was disappointed I missed a page in the first ballot hall of famers career. I realized I had become a Peyton Manning fan.

This doesn't mean I'm going to go buy a warehouse of #18 jerseys. I still refuse to redact my futile ban of SEC football. But there's a unique form of respect I have for an athlete who turned one of his most venomous haters into a humbled supporter. It's a respect Manning earned without ever uttering a single word.

Please, just don't call him cute.

In case you don't Have the NFL network: 49ers vs Bears

2009-11-12T17:27:00.000-08:00

Desperate 49ers, Bears, tangle in Bay Area to kick off Week 10

From Cooper's Sports Picks you can watch the action live on our sports network gamecast under the scoreboard section.

(Sports Network) - The team that wins Thursday's primetime battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears at Candlestick Park will have the opportunity to kick off its weekend in a positive fashion. The loser, on the other hand, will have an extra few days to wallow in its misery before taking the field again in Week 11.

Both the 49ers and Bears are badly in need of a victory on Thursday in order to wash away the residue of poor stretches of football.

San Francisco has dropped four straight games since getting off to a promising 3-1 start, and last Sunday suffered the indignity of a 34-27 home setback to the one-win Tennessee Titans.

Four turnovers helped sink the 49ers, including an Alex Smith interception that was returned for a game-sealing touchdown by Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan late in the fourth quarter. Three of Tennessee's five scoring drives went for fewer than 40 yards.

With the loss, Smith dropped to 0-2 since taking over the starting reins from the demoted Shaun Hill. Smith, the former No. 1 overall pick out of Utah, is completing a solid 63.6 percent of his passes and has six touchdowns versus five interceptions for a credible 83.3 passer rating, but has not translated his modest personal success into a team win.

Smith last won a game in which he was the starter on Sept. 16, 2007, a 17-16 victory at the St. Louis Rams.

If he ends that streak on Thursday, Smith will also have provided a special victory for his head coach, Mike Singletary, who was a Hall of Fame linebacker with the Bears from 1981 to 1992 and will be facing his former employer for the first time as a head man.

The Tennessee loss dropped San Francisco (3-5) dropped two full games back of the Cardinals (5-3) in the NFC West as Week 10 begins.

Things are nearly as dire in Chicago, where the Bears' listless 41-21 home loss to the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday was the team's third in its last four games following a 3-1 start, and dropped the team to 4-4.

Arizona scored on its first six possessions of the game, including touchdowns on its first four, and had already amassed 21 first-downs and 320 total yards by the time the first 30 minutes had ended with the Cardinals ahead, 31-7.

The Chicago defense had major trouble against Kurt Warner, who was a sizzling 17-of-22 for 189 yards and four touchdowns in the first half, as well as wideout Larry Fitzgerald, who burned them for seven catches, 88 yards, and two touchdowns over the first two quarters.

Meanwhile, Bears quarterback Jay Cutler couldn't keep up, with his erratic play serving as a continuation of the way he'd looked leading the offense in previous games against the Bengals (a 45-10 loss) and Browns (a 30-6 win). After leading a touchdown drive on the Bears' first possession, Chicago came up empty on its next six marches of the day.

By the time Cutler gave Chicago fans something to cheer about when he threw back-to-back fourth-quarter touchdowns to tight end Greg Olsen, the Bears were in too big a hole to recover.

The Bears enter Week 10 tied for second-place in the NFC North along with similarly-struggling Green Bay, and are three full games behind second-place Minnesota (7-1).

SERIES HISTORY

Chicago leads the all-time regular season series with the 49ers, 29-27-1, and has won three straight over San Francisco including a 41-10 rout when the teams last met, at Soldier Field in 2006. The Niners' last victory in the series also marks the last game played between the two in the Bay Area, a 49-7 result in 2003.

The 49ers have won all three postseason matchups between the clubs, defeating the Bears for the NFC Championship in both 1984 and 1988, and prevailing in a 1994 NFC Divisional Playoff. Of those contests, the 1988 matchup was the only one played in Chicago.

Including playoffs, the Bears are 0-6 in San Francisco since last winning there in the 1985 regular season. The home team has won 10 consecutive regular season installments of the series since Chicago's '85 win, though as mentioned, the Niners won a playoff game at Soldier Field in 1988.

Bears head coach Lovie Smith is 3-0 all-time against San Francisco. The 49ers' Mike Singletary, who as mentioned was a Hall of Fame linebacker for Chicago from 1981 to 1992, will be meeting his former employer for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL

Though his numbers in his first year in Chicago have been passable, Cutler (2046 passing yards, 14 TD, 12 INT) has had an up-and-down 2009 season to date. The signal-caller leads an attack that is a disappointing 18th in NFL total offense (332.4), and has gone through occasional bouts of inaccuracy and poor decision-making. That said, Cutler's chemistry with a once-suspect receiving corps, including wideouts Devin Hester (41 receptions, 3 TD), Earl Bennett (32 receptions), and Johnny Knox (28 receptions, 3 TD) along with tight end Greg Olsen (27 receptions, 6 TD), seems to be developing. Hester has recorded 80-plus receiving yards in each of his last four games, Bennett posted a season-high 93 receiving yards last week, and Olsen caught all three Cutler touchdown passes in last week's loss to the Cardinals. The Chicago running game, meanwhile, has been miserable, with Matt Forte' (441 rushing yards, 3 TD, 30 receptions) getting little going behind a shaky offensive line. Forte' had a career-low five carries last week totaling 33 yards, as Chicago played from behind for most of the day. The Bears are just 28th in NFL rushing offense (90.5 yards per game), and have allowed 19 sacks on the year to date.

One week after playing bend-but-don't-break defense in a narrow loss at the Indianapolis Colts, the 49ers broke once too often in their loss to Tennessee. The root of the team's problem was an inability to stop running back Chris Johnson, who rambled for 135 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries in the contest. A run-stopping group that dropped to fourth in the NFL (93.2 yards per game) but is No. 1 in yards allowed per carry (3.4), will count heavily on sure-tackling inside linebacker Patrick Willis (77 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 INT) and nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin (21 tackles, 2 sacks), to help stop Forte'. Willis led the Niners with 10 tackles against Tennessee, while Franklin posted five stops to pace the team's linemen. San Francisco ranks just 24th in the league against the pass (241 yards per game) as Week 10 begins, and is still without top cornerback Nate Clements, who will likely miss another month with a broken arm. Corners Shawntae Spencer (27 tackles, 1 INT) and Tarell Brown (9 tackles) will likely have primarily responsibility against Hester and Bennett. An inconsistent 49ers pass rush has just 17 sacks on the year, including but one of Tennessee's Vince Young last Sunday. That sack went to outside linebacker Manny Lawson (38 tackles, 2.5 sacks), who will have to be active in pursuing Cutler this week.

WHEN THE 49ERS HAVE THE BALL

The 49ers come off a week in which they amassed a season-high 250 passing yards, also putting up their most total yards (358) since Week 2, but the club's season-high four turnovers helped cancel out that progress. Smith (690 passing yards), who will get his third straight crack at a win, showed his best chemistry with tight end Vernon Davis (42 receptions, 7 TD) and wide receiver Jason Hill (4 receptions, 2 TD). Davis, who continued an eye-opening third season as a pro, hauled in 10 balls for 102 yards in a losing effort, while Hill caught both touchdown passes from Smith. Rookie first-rounder Michael Crabtree (14 receptions) had his quietest day in three outings as a pro, managing just three catches for 30 yards in his home debut. Running back Frank Gore (447 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 6 TD) added value with 158 yards on 22 total touches, but failed to post his first 100-yard rushing effort since Week 2. Entering Thursday's game, the Niners are 22nd in the league in passing offense (184.2 yards per game), 21st in rushing (101.4 yards per game), and have allowed 26 sacks, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL.

Following their horrendous performance in last week's loss, the Bears are seeking a number of answers on the defensive side of the ball. One figures to be answered in the person of defensive tackle Tommie Harris (9 tackles, 1 INT), who was ejected a little more than a minute into last week's game for throwing a punch at Cardinals offensive lineman Deuce Lutui. Harris is the lynch pin of a stop unit that ranks just 21st in the league against the run (119.5 yards per game), and without him in the lineup the Bears surrendered a bloated 182 ground yards to Arizona last week. Linebackers Hunter Hillenmeyer (30 tackles) and Lance Briggs (59 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) combined for 19 tackles in the game, but have generally struggled to replace the presence of injured Pro Bowler Brian Urlacher. Chicago is 12th in the league against the pass (206.5), but had notable trouble against Warner and the Arizona passing game last week. Cornerbacks Charles Tillman (37 tackles, 2 INT) and Zackary Bowman (33 tackles, 2 INT) will have to bounce back against San Francisco's fleet of wideouts, with safeties Danieal Manning (61 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack) and Kevin Payne (26 tackles) offering more support. Chicago has been an inconsistent pass rushing team, with Alex Brown (28 tackles, 4.5 sacks) notching the only sack of Warner last week. Brown and fellow DE Adewale Ogunleye (20 tackles, 4.5 sacks) are tied for the league lead in sacks, but Ogunleye has failed to record a sack in six of his last seven games.

FANTASY FOCUS

Cutler has thrown for 225 or more yards in seven of his eight appearances this season, including a season-best 369 last Sunday, but he's a risky fantasy play because he throws as many interceptions as touchdown passes about half the time. If you're on the fence, start him in the knowledge that the 49ers are relatively weak against the pass. Hester and Olsen have also been strong plays of late, but Forte' has not, and you'd be well-advised to bench the running back against a good San Francisco run defense. The Bears defense belongs on waiver wires at this stage.

The Niners don't have many slam-dunk fantasy options apart from the tight end Davis, who is having a monster year, and Gore, who hasn't been putting up a ton of yards but has scored in each of his last two. Smith is not a fantasy starter, and though Crabtree and Jason Hill have had their moments of late, both carry too mush risk at this stage.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Neither of these teams is so far out of the playoff race that they should abandon their ambitions, but one seems better-equipped than the other to make a run. No, it's not the Bears, who are one very high-profile quarterback and not much else at this stage. It's the 49ers, who despite their four-game losing streak have been showing signs of progress in recent weeks and will be desperate to post a primetime win in front of the home fans. Look for San Francisco to move the football on a Bears group that has been very spotty defensively, and for Cutler to make a couple of his customary mistakes on the other side of the ball to help sink the visitors.

Ricky's Revenge

2009-10-14T05:37:00.000-07:00

Lost in the smoke of the Miami Dolphins last second 31-27 Monday victory over the New York Jets was the game’s statistical hero, some guy people may remember as Ricky Williams. Williams accumulated a game-high 144 yards from scrimmage, averaging six yards per touch. Yet postgame praise focused on platoon mate Ronnie Brown (who was equally impressive) and his mastery of the NFL’s most overused two words: the wildcat. Sideline reporter Andrea Kremer sprinted past Williams to shove a mic in the face of Miami quarterback Chad Henne. There was zero mention of Ricky. I can’t help but get the feeling Ricky is just fine with that.

A self proclaimed vegan and active member of PETA, Williams has quietly become the NFL’s anti-Vick. After a multiyear absence, Ricky has made himself relevant in the one place where Vick has not: the football field. There’s no question he’s back as a football player, but the real dilemma for fans is whether he cares. Has Ricky really changed as a person since his suspension?
“I get defensive,” says Ricky when asked this question by the New York Times in a preseason interview. “I like to think I’m the same person. I just have more clarity.”
The problem for Dolphins fans is that the “same person” abandoned their franchise two days before their 2007 training camp for a dime bag of alfalfa and a bottomless box of cheezits. The fallout was not pretty for the Fins: a franchise worst 1-15 mark. Fans were unwilling to forgive, forever labeling him as the NFL’s posterboy pothead.

“Since I’ve become famous for it, I’m amazed at how many people ask me to smoke,” Williams says. “For me to move on with my career, this has to be behind me. I don’t want to keep being reminded of it on a daily basis.”

We can’t blame Williams for avoiding incessant questions about his past. Still, fans itch to know if he’s only in it for the paycheck because the cardinal sin in sports for fans is an athlete who doesn’t love the game. In the back of our minds we still dream of hoisting the Heisman trophy or shaking the commish’s hand on draft day. Ricky was blessed with the talent to enjoy these moments; so it’s infuriating for a lot of us diehards to accept the fact he chose hot room yoga over the professional gridiron.
“At the core, we’re all spiritual beings,” Williams tells the New York Times. “It’s something that I had been pushing down my whole life. The search for meaning, I guess, the whispering of the soul.”

Not exactly words that strike fear into opposing defenses, right? What fans really want from Williams is to see his passion for winning. They want him to tweet “just finished third cycle of roids. give thirty-four the damn ball!” How about a choreographed fine-inducing endzone dance, Ricky? Please, please at least remove your helmet during locker room interviews?

The reality is Ricky will never be the fire breathing athlete we adore. He is a unique flower, one who is fully aware of his own confusing legacy: “It’s like the open-minded, spiritual person and the football player, they get into a tug of war,” Williams says. “It’s not pretty. It’s ongoing. I have to find a way to reconcile both those parts of myself so that I can have some kind of peace.”

Ricky’s bruising running style shows little evidence he is searching for this inner-peace on the field. In a season which headlines have been dominated by Vick, the never ending Favre hype machine, and endless dissection of 32 variations of the wildcat formation, it’s a godsend to follow a player who still knows how to lower his shoulder and drive his feet into the chinstrap of the defense.

I doubt we’ll ever know if Ricky actually cares about the outcome of the game. All we can do is enjoy him on the field and try our hardest to appreciate this rare breed of athlete off it. One day Williams will likely disappear from the league with little fanfare. No matter how funky the smell, fans will miss the cloud of smoke he leaves behind.

NFL Football Picks from Coopers Pick.

NCAA or NFL?

2009-09-14T23:35:00.001-07:00

The pageantry of college football versus the blinding speed and precision of the pros: everyone has their preference; but for sports bettors it''s near impossible to choose one exclusively over the other.

At the end of the day it''s all about building units and bringing home the bread so here''s a quick breakdown why bettors should wager their money on pimple-faced college players over the seasoned ironmen of the NFL.

1. In the NFL, parity is king.

Against the spread, parity conquers all. The prime example of this rule is my woeful Detroit Lions (disclaimer: this blog will be discussing the Detroit Lions far more than they deserve or you wish to hear.) The 2008 Lions set an infamous record for futility by putting up a huge donut for the year yet managed to put up a respectable 7-9 record against the spread. Even the most casual NFL handicappers exercised severe caution when facing inflated double-digit Lion spreads: the kitties lost just under half of their games by one touchdown or less. The 2008 Lions point differential and offensive statistics suggest that despite their pathetic record they are miles away from being the worst team in league history. It''s tough to argue they are even among the bottom ten since the merger.

Et tu, Barry?

Of the 32 teams in the No Fun League, 23 were within two or less games from .500 against the spread for the season. If that''s not a huge red flag for you, all I can do is wish you good luck on your eleven-team parlays this season. You''re going to need it.

For those of you still brave enough to test the waters, the top NFL teams ATS in 2008 were the Titans (12-3-1) and Ravens (12-4). The Saints (10-5-1) and Eagles (10-6) fared well but there''s a significant drop off to mediocrity after these four teams. The worst teams ATS were the Jaguars (4-12) and Broncos (4-11-1). Don''t forget to factor in the high turnover on NFL squads during the current salary cap era has made worst to first division turnarounds possible (unless you''re the Lions).

2. Freedom of information.

The days of smoke and mirror shows locking bettors out from the inside scoop on their favorite teams are over. There is no lack of information nowadays; college powerhouse programs have paparazzi rivaled coverage; NFL teams welcome documentary film crews into their once sacred training camps. There''s one problem with the wealth of access we have to injury reports, depth charts, practice updates: the oddsmakers have more of it. The house has forged relationships with scouts, boosters, even disgruntled league employees (Tim Donaghy, anyone?)
If only this man had swallowed his whistle before the over hit...

Unless you''re Ace Rothstein, your sources end here. The slight edge for us is that it''s difficult for the house to have insider information on all 120 FBS Division I-A teams (not to mention the 200 programs who often stroll into town for off-season slaughter). It''s easier to cap your alma mater versus directional university state when you are familiar with obscure local conferences. Compare this to an interdivisional battle in the NFL: there''s no angle the house won''t have covered.

3. Scheduling

A 42-yard field goal in the NFL? Chalk up three points. But can anyone rely on Florida International''s freshmen kicker four months removed from prom to boot it through the uprights with the game on the line?

What about the fan-friendly overtime rules in college? A hard earned under can transform into an undeserving over in two quick possessions.

This is another example of the increased volatility in college football. There is an gargantuan talent disparity between high profile programs such as Oklahoma and USC compared to a Temple or Montana St. When you have 5-star studs going up against junior college walkons; you''re gonna find 50-point spreads.
Lock of the day: manboobs on the moneyline.

Volatility for us wannabe handicappers is good; across the board parity is not. We know we can''t rely on the unknown teenage kicker so we either fade or avoid him. 50-point spreads can be intimidating but if you know the Western Lutheran Community College is only coming into town for a quick paycheck and their starting QB didn''t even make his varsity high school team you can lay the points with real confidence.

I don''t know if there''s anything better in this world than 12 hours of exercise-free HD, pizza, and Keystone light on a Sunday afternoon. I just don''t think it''s worth losing your couch over. Build your units on Saturday and coast for stress free Sundays. Unless you''re rooting for the Lions.

For more great stories and in depth game analysis please check out the rest of Coopers Sports Pick website.