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Florida at Florida State Pick

College Football Pick UF vs FSU 
 
By: Evan Abrams
 
University of Florida at Florida State, Current College Football Odds:-2, 51

It is really put up or shut up time for the Seminoles in this game on Saturday in
Tallahassee. Florida has won their last 6 games versus Florida State, dominating
them handily in all but two meetings [winning by an average of 21.8 point a game],
but to be honest, things seem a bit different about this showdown for the state
of Florida. This game is not just about a win or a loss on either teams record, this
game has come to mean a ton when it comes to recruiting and showing the rest of
the state of Florida that Jimbo Fisher is here to stay. The difference maker in this
match up has to be a player that threw 2 interceptions in their November meeting in
2008 where Florida blitzed Florida State 45-15, and that is the Florida State current
starting quarterback Christian Ponder. Ponder has totaled 17 passing touchdowns
and 8 interceptions this season and have led the Seminoles to an 8-3 record and
a step forward from the dismal performances Florida State has put up in recent
seasons.

Florida has already this season had a losing streak of 3 games and have lost a total
of 4 games overall, and with the standards of Urban Meyer, you can expect this
showdown against Florida State to mean the most by far. No matter how bad Florida
has looked at times this season, this is the game they can lay their heart on the line
and say at least we beat our in-state rivals for the 7th straight year. Urban knows
how important this game is in terms of both recruiting and their momentum going
into next year, which they are sure to be a better team and again begin chasing a bid
to the BCS.

When I look at the trends for this game, you obviously know that Florida has
dominated the SU battle which we mentioned earlier, but what comes out to
surprise me is the favorite going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings and the Gators
being 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Florida State. The Seminoles have recently
had a ton of trouble fighting their way to gain respect from the SEC by going 0-4 ATS
versus that conference in their last 4 games, but what gives Florida State a light of
hope is the fact that Florida is 0-4 ATS versus teams with a winning record this year.
My leans in this game come down to two picks: Florida State minus the points and
the over.
 
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